Election Update

Well, as of this moment, Vice President Biden has taken the lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, and continues to hold a significant lead in Nevada and Arizona. If he holds those states, he wins this election. While that is not guaranteed, by all accounts most of the remaining uncounted votes are mail-in/absentee ballots and from urban centers (e.g., Detroit). There is no reason to expect President Trump to be able to gain any ground there. It’s possible, but Biden should be the prohibitive favorite to win the election right now (and betting markets back up that assessment).

I also want to caution everybody not to accept President Trump’s narrative that Vice President Biden’s comeback in Wisconsin and Michigan is evidence of fraud or that he’s somehow “stealing the election.” As I posted yesterday before the polls started closing, some states (including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) did not even begin processing absentee ballots (which were always expected to lean heavily Democratic) until yesterday and those were expected to come in late. We saw the opposite happen in several other states last night as Biden took early leads in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and elsewhere only to see Trump steadily chip away and chip away as the in-person, Election Day votes were counted. Trump overtook Biden in those states, and it looks like Biden is overtaking Trump in these others (as we expected). Please take care not to equate this expected shift with widespread fraud. Of course, it’s possible there are specific instances where some votes were improperly counted and I’m sure that will be litigated over the coming days. And, there is legitimate legal question as to how Pennsylvania is operating its election. But, just because you woke up to see they suddenly “found” a bunch of Biden votes that put him in the lead in states that were leaning Trump when you went to sleep does not mean that there is anything improper going on.