Warning for Election Night

Just a heads up for those planning to watch the election results come in tonight… be mindful of when states report their mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots are expected to overwhelmingly favor Biden (more so than in-person voting). So, in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina, where they process mail-in/absentee votes BEFORE Election Day, we should expect to see those votes reported first, which will make it look like Biden is taking a huge lead. Then, as the rest of the results come in, mostly in-person votes, Trump will likely chip away at that lead. In those states, the question will be can Trump catch up.

In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, they do not begin processing mail-in/absentee votes until Election Day, so the opposite will happen. We will begin to see in-person votes reported first, and then mail-in/absentee votes will be added in as they are processed, which could take days (especially in Pennsylvania where some counties are reporting they won’t even begin counting those ballots until tomorrow). I say all this just to caution against rushing to judgment based on early returns tonight because they are likely to be skewed one direction or another in potentially unpredictable ways.